A Green victory would change politics forever

Gorton and Denton is a genuinely historic by-election

If the Green Party defeat Reform in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election, it will change politics in this country forever.

That’s more than enough of a reason to bung them a few quid for their election crowdfunder.

That’s why Labour is in a state of panic over the Greens. Not hyperbole: just a straightforward fact.

“A Reform win would be terrible. But a Green win would be existential.” That’s the conclusion of someone described as a “sometime adviser” to the Labour leadership in a piece written by The Times’ Patrick Maguire.

Meanwhile, Labour has ordered its MPs to ramp up their attacks on the Greens. That includes targeting the only political party led by a Jewish Brit over claims of antisemitism. The gutter awaits.

Labour know that if the Greens win, their last remaining trump card - blackmailing voters into sticking with them in case Reform win - will be destroyed. The Greens will position themselves as the alternative to Nigel Farage.

So how can the Greens win the by-election? At the 2024 election, Labour won 50.8% of the vote. The Greens were narrowly beaten by Reform into third place, winning 13.2% - up by nearly 11 points since 2019.

But back then, people were desperate to defeat the Tories. Keir Starmer’s ratings on the eve of the election were already bad at minus 18: the more they’d seen of him, the more they disliked him. But he’s now on minus 57.

The party has been rendered toxic by its record in government: robbing pensioners and kicking disabled people while raking in freebies from rich donors, being defined by constant U-turns, lacking any vision or answers to the country’s problems, sucking up to Donald Trump, arming Israel’s genocide… we could go on.

And they’ve now stitched up the by-election to prevent popular Mancunian mayor Andy Burnham standing, which has gone down like a cup of sick locally.

The Green Party, meanwhile, has surged in the polls under the unashamedly left-populist charismatic leadership of Zack Polanski. Their membership has more than trebled in just a few months - to an astonishing 190,000.

But both Labour and Reform are going to throw everything at the Greens, with a smear campaign which will undoubtedly overlap. The Greens might be currently favourites, but they’ve never won a by-election or a seat in the North.

So how can they win?

There are three major demographics in the constituency that lend themselves to clichés: students and young professionals, working-class people who are white, and Muslims. To cut across those clichés: Muslim voters care about the cost-of-living crisis and the NHS, and many white non-Muslim voters object to slaughtering Palestinian children.

The most important chart in British politics

A poll commissioned by Persuasion last August asked voters, if they had to choose, who they blamed most for the problems in Britain today.

44% chose “rich and wealthy business elites and the politicians who let them get away with things.” 38% chose “immigrants and asylum seekers and the politicians who let them into the country.”

Politics right now revolves around bashing migrants. That’s Reform’s central purpose, and a Labour party which is aggressively opposed to challenging rich elites fuels that agenda.

The Greens are the only credible party to focus on rich elites. Their whole strategy needs to hammer away at taxing those who have boomed while millions struggle, to invest in public services, communities, living standards, and the future of the next generation.

Harnessing people’s legitimate anger in the right direction should be at the heart of their strategy.

Caerphilly-isation

In the Welsh by-election for the Senedd seat of Caerphilly, pundits presumed Reform UK had it in the bag. But in the end Plaid Cymru - left-wing nationalists - secured 47.4% of the vote, compared to 34.2% for Reform. Labour won just 11% in a seat they’d always triumphed in since the dawn of British democracy itself.

They argued that the by-election could be a “reset” and “positive change” in Welsh politics. They argued that Labour had “taken valley communities for granted”. They focused on bread-and-butter issues like public services and low wages, as well as ultra-local commitments such as keeping libraries open. They had a flagship cost-of-living policy on childcare. And they positioned themselves as the ‘Stop Reform’ party.

The Greens should learn from all of this.

Mamdani magic

Zohran Mamdani triumphed in New York City - despite a vicious smear campaign - by obsessively focusing on the cost of living. Crucially, he argued that living standards could be improved by increasing taxes on the well-to-do. This is basic class politics: we can improve your lives if we stop allowing the nation’s wealth to be concentrated in the bank accounts of a few.

The Greens have just announced a policy of free bus passes for everyone under 22 in England. That will help mobilise young voters - the most enthusiastic about the Greens, the least likely to vote, not least in a by-election.

But what’s another flagship cost of living pledge that would go down particularly well in Gorton and Denton?

Labour pains

Emulating Plaid Cymru, the Greens should hammer away at ‘Labour took you for granted. Send them a message.’

The people of Gorton and Denton, like the overwhelming number of Brits, do not notice any tangible differences under Labour compared to the Tories. The big cut-through policy they remember is the confiscation of the winter fuel payment from pensioners. Attacking disabled people further cemented the party’s reputation for cruelty. All of this should be front and centre.

The blocking of the Greater Mancunian Mayor - and the rallying of Labour MPs behind Starmer - underlines the party’s contempt for communities like Gorton and Denton. This is a party with no interest in changing course in response to people’s anger.

And they’ve taken on Reform’s agenda - so how can they possibly be an alternative?

Given the incoming smear campaign against the Greens - and the fact that the party and its leader are new to most voters - ‘Labour took you for granted. Send them a message’ will help persuade uncertain voters. They’ll see hopefully this by-election as an opportunity to punish Labour for treating them with contempt, and the Greens as the best vehicle to do that. And once they make their first tentative jump to the Greens, it’s much easier to convince them to stay there.

There should also be an unapologetic zeroing in on Starmer. 'Want to give Starmer the boot? Vote Green’.

The Tory B team

Reform have now hoovered up so many Tories - and indeed former Tory Cabinet ministers - the attack lines write themselves.

“They wrecked the country, you kicked them out - and now they’re trying to sneak back in through Reform.”

It is now incredibly easy to paint Reform as just the Tory party, but a more extreme version. How can the alternative be rejects from the worst government of our lifetimes?

The fact Reform have now chose Matt Goodwin - an academic from Kent who is part of the London media circus - is gold dust. He’s a former liberal turned right-wing headbanger, and his abandoned beliefs should be dug up mercilessly.

Muslim voters

Gorton and Denton has a large Muslim population - 29.6%. Many of them of course care deeply about Israel’s Western-facilitated genocide - but they’re far from alone. Everyone should be reminded of this crime and Labour’s role in it.

Labour’s history of treating Muslims as voting fodder should be emphasised, and their institutional Islamophobia - as well as Reform’s rampant anti-Muslim prejudice and their alliance with Donald Trump.

Muslim Brits are far more likely to suffer from poverty, poor housing, and other social evils. These are issues the Greens need to champion.

It’s really helpful that The Muslim Vote has endorsed the Greens, not least because George Galloway’s Workers’ Party is standing a candidate. They did crucial work mobilising voters at the last election behind anti-genocide candidates.

Go local

The Greens should really stand a local candidate here - not least given Labour’s stitch-up. An excellent choice is surely Hannah Spencer, a local plumber and a Green councillor.

A ground army

The Greens have 190,000 members - but the challenge is mobilising them to come to Gorton and Denton. Many of them - likely most - have never gone campaigning. They should be helped to get over any nervousness - and be part of making history.

The Trump factor

Trump is loathed across British society. Most Reform voters don’t even like him. Reform, Labour and the Tories can all be justifiably denounced as Trump stooges. It’s accurate and they deserve it.

What else?

Fascinated to hear your thoughts!