Donald Trump makes clear Gaza ceasefire will collapse

Trump hasn't agreed to a lasting ceasefire - and all the signs point towards a renewed and intensified genocide in Gaza

Donald Trump, the now re-installed President of the United States, has made clear to anyone who is not painfully naive that the current so-called ceasefire in Gaza will come to an end, that Israel’s genocidal onslaught will not only resume, but will be escalated. When asked by a reporter if he thought the ceasefire and the three phases of the deal would last, he grimaced, declaring “I’m not confident”, adding:

“It's not our war, it's their war. But I'm not confident. But I think they're very weakened on the other side.

"I looked at a picture of Gaza. It's like a massive demolition site. That place is, it's really … it's gotta be rebuilt in a different way.”

Asked if he’d help rebuild Gaza, Trump replied he “might”, adding:

“Gaza's interesting, it's a phenomenal location. On the sea, the best weather. Everything's good. Some beautiful things can be done with it. It's very interesting. Some fantastic things can be done with it.”

What does all this mean?

First of all, the jubilation of the Palestinian people in Gaza at the ceasefire was a beautiful sight to behold. Any respite in that unimaginable suffering has to be welcomed. The fact that a ceasefire deal was struck which was the same ceasefire deal which has been around almost since the start of this horror is a damning indictment of Joe Biden, who refused to use the leverage he had, not least Israel being dependent on US weapons to conduct its slaughter.

Indeed, the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani told Sky News on Friday that the deal followed the same framework as the one agreed in December 2023, decrying “13 months of a waste, of negotiating details that have no meaning that aren’t worth a single life”.

That does not mean Trump is a peacemaker. Note the language he uses in that clip. You see, Trump tries to present himself as the peace candidate. When I went to his rallies in Rust Belt states in the build-up to his election in November, that was one of his selling points for his supporters - about not embroiling the US in foreign wars.

That’s why he says in this clip about Gaza “I’m not confident. That’s not our war. It’s their war”. He is excepting Gaza from the wars he’s talking about disentangling the US from or avoiding. He’s saying Gaza doesn’t count in the tally. And he’s saying that because when he says he’s “not confident” about the ceasefire remaining, he knows full well Israel plans to resume its genocidal onslaught when it believes there is an opportune moment.

First of all, is there even a ceasefire? How do you define ceasefire? For me, the clue really is in the word itself, ceasefire. But the Israeli state has not ceased firing. On Monday, near Al-Awda square in central Rafah, the Israeli occupying forces shot and killed 15-year-old Zakaria Barbakh as he rode on a donkey. When another man was filmed trying to drag his body away, they opened fire on him as well.

This is a thought experiment I have been forced to indulge ever since this genocidal carnage began, one you should deeply resent, but has been necessary because Palestinian life is treated as utterly worthless. Image Palestinian militants had shot dead a 15-year-old Israeli boy riding a donkey, and then there was footage of an Israeli man trying to rescue the body being shot at by those Palestinian militants. Imagine the deluge of outrage in Western media outlets and amongst Western politicians. Would anyone treat that as the ceasefire being respected, remaining in place? No of course they would not. Because they treat Israeli life as having value, just as they treat Palestinian life as having no value, as having the worth approximating a house fly.

So with the current so-called ceasefire, note the extremists around Trump. His pick for US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, doesn’t believe there is any such thing as a Palestinian. Trump has just lifted the pause on 2,000 pound bombs to Israel, which were repeatedly dropped on so-called safe zones for Palestinians. Miriam Adelson, the Israeli-American billionaire, gave Trump $100m for his election campaign, and she reportedly urged Trump to back the annexation of the West Bank in exchange for her backing.

In the West Bank itself, the pogrom against Palestinians is escalating, with terrorist settlers attacking and burning Palestinian villages and vehicles while the Israeli army block entrances to Palestinian cities.

And crucially according to Israeli media reports, Trump promised Netanyahu that if they agreed to a ceasefire and withdrawal of IDF forced from Gaza, he “will support Israel retroactively if it decides to return to fighting and violate the ceasefire”.

According to the well-connected Axios media outlet:

“Netanyahu said during the meeting that he received guarantees from both the Biden administration and the Trump administration that if negotiations over the second phase of the ceasefire and hostage deal fail, and Israel's security demands are not met, Israel would be able to resume the war in Gaza with U.S. backing, an Netanyahu aide tells Axios.”

To further quote:

“Sources in Smotrich's party claimed he received assurances from Netanyahu that the war would resume after the initial 42-day ceasefire and the humanitarian aid delivery system for Gaza would be changed to prevent Hamas from controlling the aid.”

And indeed to quote from the Times of Israel:

“During a high-level meeting last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told those present that Israel will resume fighting after a hostage deal, if one comes about, Channel 12 reports.

“If there is a deal — and I hope there will be — Israel will return to fighting afterward. There is no point in pretending otherwise because returning to fighting is needed in order to complete the goals of the war. Saying this does not thwart a deal, it encourages a deal,” Channel 12 quotes Netanyahu as having said.”

The idea that Donald Trump, who bent over backwards to accommodate the demands of the Israeli Right last time he was President, and the extremists around both Trump and Netanyahu now plan peace for Gaza is beyond delusional

And note how Trump was discussing how Gaza “looks like a massive demolition site” but “that it's a phenomenal location, on the sea, best weather, some beautiful things could be done with it.”

Was he talking about redeveloping it for the sake of the Palestinian people of Gaza?

Let’s recall what was said by Jared Kushner, his nephew and advisor in the first term, who was the main architect of Trump’s so-called Israeli-Palestinian peace plan last time which in practise was just executing the fantasies of the Israeli Right. Nearly a year ago, Kushner said Gaza’s “waterfront property could be very valuable” and cast doubt on Palestinians ever returning to their homes, on the grounds “I am not sure there is much left of Gaza at this point.”

Well, it’s clear what could beckon. The ethnic cleansing of Gaza, presented as unavoidable given Gaza has been destroyed, and then Gaza colonised by Israeli settlements, which is clearly the game plan of the Israeli right. You can’\t say you were not warned. Trump will not bring peace to Gaza and Palestine - far from it.

And here’s also a prediction. Trump’s allies are planning a crackdown on pro-Palestinian protests. If there is a renewed genocidal onslaught against Gaza, then protests will inevitably break out across the United States. That may well be used to justify a whole slew of authoritarian measures to roll back US democracy. Well the so-called moderates of the US paved the way for that by facilitating the genocide and then demonising those protesting against it. It may well prove that they weren’t just the gravediggers of Gaza.

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