Israel caves on Gaza

Israel was planning to resume its genocidal campaign this weekend. That has now been postponed

Israel has caved - for now. It was planning this weekend to destroy the so-called ceasefire, and renew its genocidal frenzy against the Palestinian people, but with an unprecedented intensity.

We know that because Israel was deliberately violating the terms of the ceasefire agreement. It wasn’t just repeatedly shooting dead Palestinians in Gaza, although you might consider firing at people to kill them qualifies as a violation of ceasing to fire. You might also conclude that if Hamas militants killed just one Israeli, let alone at least 25, there would be howls of outrage from the media and politicians and Israel would immediately announce the ceasefire was over and unleash its firepower against Gaza again.

In which case you would need to live in a parallel universe where the same standards are applied to Israel as to Palestinians. Alas, we do not live that in that universe.

More to the point, the ceasefire deal involved a massive upscaling of humanitarian aid. The Israeli state has been relentlessly besieging the people of Gaza, which it made clear that it would do from the start - Yoav Gallant, former defence minister, is amongst those who announced a “complete siege” on Gaza on the grounds Israel was fighting “human animals”.

Indeed the main pillar of the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against Gallant as well as Israel prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu focuses on Israel’s starvation policy towards Gaza.

And then in northern Gaza, the so-called “Generals Plan” was put into place - this was a grotesque plan devised by the retired Israeli general Giora Eiland - who served as an advisor to the former defence minister Gallant - to drive the entire civilian population out - that is those who survived being bombed and shot - by using starvation and a siege on all the essentials of life.

And of particular urgency in terms of humanitarian aid is shelter. It’s estimated by the United Nations that 92% of homes in Gaza are destroyed or damaged; the vast majority of its population have been violently displaced.

It’s also worth noting that multiple Israeli news outlets made clear that Netanyahu was looking for an excuse to violate the ceasefire agreement in order to renew the onslaught.

Al Jazeera went through the violations of the promises Israel had made as part of the ceasefire agreement:

• Allowed 8,500 aid trucks to enter, rather than the agreed 12,000

• Allowed 15 fuel trucks per day to enter, rather than the agreed 50

• Allowed 20,000 tents to enter, rather than the agreed 200,000

• Allowed no mobile homes to enter, rather than the agreed 60,000

There was no explanation given for these violations. Israel was clearly just looking for an excuse to derail the ceasefire. So when Hamas then responded by saying the ceasefire had been violated and that the deal to release three Israeli hostages on Saturday would no longer happen, like clockwork, Donald Trump said that all hell would break loose, which was echoed by Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers.

But suddenly that changed. Suddenly Israel allowed temporary homes into Gaza. and they not only allowed a surge in aid trucks to take place on Wednesday, they let in 801, which was 201 more than the agreement stipulated for that - in order to retroactively make up for the lack of aid trucks on previous days.

As the brilliant Dutch-Palestinian analyst Mouin Rabbani - who I’ve interviewed many times - put it - ‘Israel’s prime minister, Binjamin Netanyahu, caved’ .

He also notes that Hamas was responding to

Israel’s refusal to engage in negotiations on the second stage of the three-part January agreement, to new proposals put forward by the Israeli prime minister that sought to comprehensively revise what had already been negotiated and concluded between the two parties

On top of that there is Trump’s plot to forcibly remove the Palestinian population, which as Rabbani putts “renders the entire agreement meaningless and irrelevant”.

That’s a crucial point. an agreement for a lasting ceasefire makes no sense whatsoever if the actual plan is to force the entire civilian population to leave Gaza. That’s one way of getting a lasting ceasefire, certainly: by simply getting rid of everyone.

Rabbani also notes that the media spin of what had happened was completely inaccurate. The media narrative was that the backlash against Hamas over three Israeli hostages being released looking “gaunt and weakened” is what caused Hamas to do this, because they feared what would happen if further hostages released looked the same - that is, the resulting fury would provide an opportunity for Israel to renew its onslaught.

To be clear, as I have been throughout, taking civilians hostage is a grave war crime. The point is these claims for why the ceasefire was breaking down were false, and yet media outlets who had access to the facts spread disinformation.

Indeed, Guy Poran, a former captain in the IDF, went on Israeli TV to say that it was Israel rather than Hamas who violated the ceasefire deal, and even said it was Trump and Netanyahu who “want to kill the hostages.”

Indeed the Times of Israel of all outlets has a headline which is very succinct:

“In first, Netanyahu spokesman admits no talks ongoing on truce’s 2nd phase, in breach of deal”

The question is - why has Israel caved and what happens next? It is worth noting that the polling shows that 70% of Israelis support the second phase of the hostage ceasefire deal.

Before we get carried away here, a large majority also support Trump’s proposal to ethnically cleanse Gaza. but clearly Israeli society wants to get their hostages back alive. If Netanyahu destroys the ceasefire, then those hostages will not return, and that could produce a massive backlash in Israeli society.

It’s also worth contemplating whether Trump, feeling jubilation at claiming to be securing a ceasefire in Ukraine, really wants that overshadowed with mass violence resuming in Palestine this weekend.

However, this all requires some heavy caveats. Netanyahu has made clear over and over again that he doesn’t want a lasting ceasefire. He says he wants to continue the military onslaught until all of Hamas is destroyed. That is an impossible goal - as the former US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken noted last month, after 15 months of genocidal mayhem and Gaza reduced to rubble, Hamas had recruited nearly as many militants as it had lost .

That is of course inevitable, if you slaughter vast numbers of innocent people, some of their loved ones will always respond by desiring to fight back. Netanyahu’s stated goal is impossible and by definition gives Israel’s onslaught its genocidal character.

We also know from multiple Israeli news reports that Netanyahu has no intention of completing the second phase of the ceasefire deal.

Clearly the calculation is to resume the onslaught when Israel has got back as many of its hostages as it can, in order to diminish the backlash from Israeli society

And that’s why relief right now should be tempered by what is likely to still take place. For now, the respite for the Palestinian citizens of Gaza who have so far survived one of the most heinous crimes of our age will continue. We should not expect that to last. With the support of the most powerful man on the face of the earth, Israel is likely to resume its genocidal onslaught - and in the near future, too.