New poll: Greens ahead in Gorton and Denton

But Reform can still win unless undecided voters are convinced

The first major poll of Gorton and Denton has been released in advance of next Thursday’s by-election.

Conducted by Omnisis, if you take out non-voters, it’s 22% for the Greens, 20% for Reform, and 18% for Labour.

But crucially, those saying they’re undecided are on 27%.

So while it shows that the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer is best placed to defeat Reform’s Matthew Goodwin - it depends on undecided voters splitting in her favour, with just six days to go.

The other really important polling finding relates to what happens if voters have to choose between only two parties.

If all voters had to choose between only Reform and the Green Party, the Greens get 39% and Reform get just 25%.

If all voters had to choose between only Reform and Labour, it is much closer. Labour get just 33%, while Reform increase to 28%.

And if voters only had to choose between Labour and the Greens, it splits 23% for Labour and 32% for Greens.

(The reason this doesn’t add up to 100% is because the results also include ‘Neither’, ‘I would not vote’ and ‘Don’t know)

And if only undecided voters are asked to choose between Reform and the Greens, the polling breaks 33% for the Greens against 19% for Reform.

Undecided voters break 27% for the Greens against 16% for Labour.

And they break 27% for Labour against 20% for Reform.

So undecided voters break clearly in favour of the Greens and against Labour and Reform - but it remains a race against time to reach them and make sure they make their mind up and vote.

Only six days to go…