The biggest US defeat since it emerged as a superpower

It's not even close.

You can pre-order my new book THE FALL OF THE WEST now…

The so-called ceasefire is already crumbling, but have no doubt: this is the biggest strategic defeat the US has suffered since it emerged as a superpower in 1945. It isn’t even close.

The US and Israel went to war believing they could variously overthrow its regime, impose a stooge leader, plunge the country into violent chaos or even dismember it, destroy its nuclear programme, neutralise it militarily, and steal its oil.

None of that has happened. Instead, Iran has secured de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s main economic arteries. It has inflicted severe economic pain on the US, the West and its Gulf allies. It has certainly suffered huge damage - including to civilian infrastructure - but its military prowess has been proven. Its nuclear programme, including its enriched uranium, remains intact.

US military prestige was already severely damaged by the Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya disasters, but now it has been shattered. It’s much worse than the precedents. Its stamina hasn’t been whittled down by years of guerrilla warfare. It went to war with a state, and within weeks, was driven into retreat after suffering severe economic damage.

Trump threatened to inflict genocide against Iran, declaring that its “civilisation will die” if it did not bend to his will. Regardless of what happens next, a line has been crossed there. Every day Trump remains in the White House represents a mortal danger: he must be removed.

But this genocidal threat clearly represented his fury and frustration at being unable to secure what he had presumed would be an easy victory. He hoped the threat could somehow overshadow the reality, which is a colossal strategic defeat.

Iran can now use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage: for example, to raise money by imposing a toll, or to demand the removal of sanctions.

Right now, Israel is unleashing unspeakable violence in Lebanon, both an attempt to destabilise the ceasefire and to inflict revenge on its people after a humiliating strategic defeat. Iran has responded by enforcing the continued shutdown of Hormuz, making clear its continued involvement in ceasefire talks depends on an end to conflict everywhere.

As it was, very few ships were likely to pass through the Strait without a secure peace deal on the grounds that the ceasefire there could fall apart at any moment, stranding or outright endangering shipping. There’s also the question of how the toll with Iran would work - and all of that matters for insurers giving the go ahead for ships to pass, without which traffic remains at a standstill.

The gravity of the defeat is clearly making White House tetchy, to say the least. After I shared a version of Iran’s 10 point plan, and concluded “This is the biggest strategic defeat suffered by the US since its emergence as a superpower,” the White House Director of Communications and Assistant to the President fired some choice words at me:

Why is Steven so grumpy? His Administration claims they’ve just secured a major victory - so why so mardy, in Northern English speak?

The truth is, of course, is that Trump did indeed describe Iran’s 10 point plan as “a workable basis on which to negotiate”. And here they are in the Wall Street Journal:

Imagine, on the day this war began, you discovered several weeks later that this was what the US intended to negotiate. You would rightly understand that the US must have suffered a terrible defeat to even countenance this.

Hence several Trump allies, like the truly toxic Laura Loomer, have shown awareness of their country’s strategic plight:

Not cheerful, is she?

Trumpism was a response to US decline. Trump believed he could reverse US decline by brute force. That has backfired spectacularly. Instead, the US’s weaknesses are more starkly on display than any time since the end of World War II.

China, in particular, stands to gain, not least as it tries to position itself as a rational, stable, reliable alternative.

But the collapse of US hegemony, alas, does not mean a new world order based on peace and justice emerges in its place. Instead, violent chaos and authoritarianism beckon. Unless, of course, we establish an alternative.

You can pre-order my new book THE FALL OF THE WEST now…