Zack Polanski’s big gamble

The Green Party leader is standing in the upcoming by-election: we spoke about his courageous move

Zack Polanski has announced he’s standing in the upcoming by-election caused by Keir Starmer’s resignation - and he has quite the fight on his hands.

I interviewed Polanski today - and discussed with him the challenge he faces.

Holborn and St. Pancras is an inner London seat, and there is much fertile ground there for a left challenger. Even at Labour’s supposed peak - its victory in the 2024 general election - Starmer’s majority collapsed from 27,763 to 11,572.

That’s for two reasons. One, the independent campaign of left-wing former anti-Apartheid activist Andrew Feinstein, who came second with 7,312 votes and nearly a fifth of the vote share. That was despite almost a total media blackout - with him written off as a total no-hoper.

And at the same time the Greens surged, too, chalking up 10.4% of the vote.

Alas, that was a divided left. But all of that, the combined left vote was approaching 30%.

In the local elections, the Greens surged in Holborn and St. Pancras - although the left there has still been hobbled by a lack of unity.

Now the circumstances are rather different. Andy Burnham is now prime minister and is enjoying his honeymoon, and is dressing himself - in rhetoric at least - in progressive garbs.

The frontrunner to be the Labour candidate is Sagal Abdi-Wali, a former Somali refugee who is said to be close to Starmer. (It is hard not to wonder what she thinks of Labour’s proposed introduction of one of the harshest asylum systems in Europe).

But Polanski has advantages. He is a national party leader with huge name recognition.

He will have the support of a Green Party which now has more than a quarter of a million members - and far more resources and experience than it once did.

He will surely be able to attract a huge grassroots army of supporters.

This is a diverse community - many minority Brits have been attracted to the Greens from Labour - and many younger progressive-inclined voters live there.

That said, this is not Hackney or Haringey: as pollster Steve Akehurst notes, it has many financially secure voters with socially liberal attitudes, rather than their financially insecure counterparts who are more attracted to the Greens.

Polanski will surely have to be position himself as an MP who will stand up for the constituency - rather than a Labour MP who will represent the government.

He will have to hammer away at Burnham shifting in rhetoric, but not in policy, and not the various U-turns he’s already made. “Hold Burnham’s feet to the fire” and “send Labour a message” must surely be part of the approach.

There is no risk of Reform winning here, so Labour can’t fall back on “Vote Green, get Farage”. Voters can be encouraged to take a risk-free punt on the Greens, believing it will send a signal to the government that they want meaningful change in substance, not in tone and rhetoric.

That includes taxing the wealthy and big business to invest in crumbling services and infrastructure.

Here is a constituency with many voters from a migrant background, or who have friends, lovers and workmates who hail from other countries.

It’s certainly worth going for Labour’s anti-migrant, anti-refugee policies. If Polanski won, there’s a good chance Shabana Mahmoud would be driven from office.

Here’s an important truth to end on. It’s Polanski and the Greens who kicked Starmer out of office. That’s because of the Gorton and Denton by election, and the local elections: Labour lost four times as many votes to the Greens as to Reform.

So already the Greens can point to having made a huge political impact.

Burnham certainly has his honeymoon - but political reality will inevitably bite, not least as a Budget approaches.